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ING Retain View of Last NBH Rate Cut in June

HUNGARY
  • ING write that the data means inflationary pressures are generally persistent, and particularly strong among items included in the core basket – which is clearly an unfavourable turn, as it points to stickier inflation.
  • They expect weaker seasonal price changes in food and clothing, and anticipate a moderation in fuel prices, however services price increases are likely to continue, and as such they expect headline inflation to remain around its current level in April. Their Dec’24 inflation forecast remains in the range of 5.5-6.0% YoY, currently leaning closer to the upper end of the range.
  • In their view, rate cuts will undoubtedly continue in the coming months – but the extent of the cuts remains highly uncertain. If market conditions are favourable in the coming weeks, the central bank may even have the opportunity to cut the base rate by 75bp, the same as in March.
  • They continue to expect the last rate cut in 2024 to take place in June. This could be followed by a holding period, which would help ensure that monetary policy is tight enough to maintain both price and financial market stability over the longer term in an environment of rising inflation.
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