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ING Say Inflation Data Increases Chance of 100bp Rate Cut “Significantly”

HUNGARY
  • ING say two factors contributed to the headline inflation rate of 9.9%: last year's high base and monthly deflation. However, ING don’t expect that core inflation will be able to remain that subdued during 2024 due to a lot of changes and risks which will probably translate into an uptick in monthly repricing.
  • In terms of average inflation in 2023, ING continue to expect an inflation print around 17.8%. When it comes to the year ahead, they forecast an average price increase of 5-6% next year, with risks tilted to the upside.
  • As far as monetary policy is concerned, ING see the chances of a 100bp rate cut increasing significantly whereas the 50bp option can be taken off the table. But they say today's data hasn't changed their longer-term monetary policy view, i.e., ING still see a need for a +200bp real interest rate environment to keep HUF stable and achieve the inflation target over the monetary policy horizon.
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