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ING See USDCAD Holding 1.36-3750 Range Descending To 1.35 Ahead Of Fed Cut

CANADA
  • ING write that “the BoC looks set to opt for back-to-back rate cuts in July as unemployment continues to climb and inflation converges on its target. We expect 50bp of further cuts this year.”
  • “The one note of caution is that the BoC policy rate is already 75bp below the Fed funds ceiling, and another cut next week would take that to 100bp – the widest it has been since 2006. This may make the central bank wary that it could make the CAD look a little vulnerable, but with the market fully convinced that the Federal Reserve will start easing in September, we don’t see this as a major constraint on BoC policy easing next week.”
  • As such, “offsetting forces could keep USD/CAD volatility capped for longer, even if we continue to favour a modest depreciation in the pair later this year”. They see a 1.36-1.3750 trading range holding for longer and “ultimately, still favour a descent to 1.35 as the first Fed cut approaches”.
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