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Initial Jobless Claims Better Than Expected In Payrolls Reference Week

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims were lower than expected in the week to Jul 15, covering a payrolls reference week, at a seasonally adjusted 228k (cons 240k) after an unrevised 237k.
  • It sees the 4-week average fall further from 247k to 238k, notably down from a recent high of 257k in the four weeks to Jun 23 for its lowest since Jun 2.
  • The NSA data don’t suggest any particularly beneficial or penal seasonal adjustment this week when eyeballing the seasonality chart although California, the largest state, is starting to drift higher above its seasonal norm and Ohio remains notably higher than pre-pandemic norms but nothing more untoward than last week.
  • Continuing claims take some of the gloss off though, surprisingly rising to 1754k (cons 1722k) after a downward revised 1721k (initial 1729k). It still remains depressed though, close to the 2019 average of 1699k. The NSA data saw an outsized increase from 1725k to 1893k, supporting the seasonally adjusted climb.


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