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Initial Jobless Marginally Higher Than Expected, New York Distortion Unwinds

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims dipped by slightly less than expected to a seasonally adjusted 222k (cons 220k) in the week to May 11, with the prior week’s jump consolidated with a marginally upward revised 232k (initial 231k).
  • This stops just short of the payrolls reference period for May.
  • It saw the four-week average drift another 3k higher to 218k, a little further away from the 201k it most recently bottomed at in January but only back to the 2019 average.
  • New York initial claims -9.4k, the large chunk of the -13.3k for national claims in non-seasonally adjusted terms. Recall that last’s week increase in NY claims accounted for 10.2k of the 19.7k national increase in a move that we suspected was a holiday distortion.

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