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Initial Signs of Declining Inactivity in Latest Data

UK DATA
MNI (London)

The November UK labour report displayed both continued robustness in the labour market (reflected in a jump in payrolls) alongside an increase in jobless claims.

  • This reflects more previously inactive participants re-entering the labour force, likely driven by the increased cost of living. This saw the inactivity rate down 0.2pp on the quarter and boosted payrolled employees by 107k (vs 42k expected). A continuation in this trend would imply less pressure on wages.
  • Total and regular pay both expanded by +6.1% 3m/yoy, which barring the pandemic was the highest monthly uptick since the series began in 2001. According to an ONS, this translated into real wages falling by -3.9% y/y.
  • The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1pp to 3.7%, yet remains slightly lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  • Commenting on today’s labour market figures, ONS head of economic statistics Sam Beckett said "though job vacancies are still at a very high level, they continue to fall and are now lower than they were a year ago."
  • Ahead of Thursday's BOE meeting, this data was relatively in line with expectations and focus turns towards tomorrow's November CPI print. Markets are currently pricing 50bp.

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