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Free AccessInternational Distribution Services (IDSLN; NR/BBB Neg/NR) Q1 (to June) Trading Update
We maintain a value view on the €28s and like hedging HY ratings with the €26s.
- Group revenue at £3.3b in 2Q up +8.2% yoy, with Royal Mail (UK) at £2b (+10.6%) getting a helping hand from the UK election. Within Royal mail parcels were +10.1% and letters +11.2% (including election) in ~half/half revenue split.
- GLS continuing its strong performance at £1.2b in revenue (+4.8%); it's saying driven by business to consumer and cross border.
- Volumes were generally positive; Royal Mail parcels +11% while letters were -4% ex. the election but +11.2% including. GLS volumes firm at +5%.
- Its confirming FY outlook (12m to March '25) for Royal Mail to deliver a adj. EBIT profit ex. voluntary redundancy costs.
"Letter volumes have declined from 20 billion at their peak to just 6.7 billion now, making the one‐price‐goes‐anywhere Universal Service unsustainable in its current form. Ofcom is due to provide an update on Universal Service reform this summer. We urge Ofcom to move quickly to consult on the changes needed to ensure an efficient, financially sustainable Universal Service that protects what customers value the most"
Equities seem confident pricing ~80% chance of EP acquiring it at £370p/share. €28s and £30s are +15-20bps wider since the initial offer on the £2.3b in debt EP will add to current £2.9b (net £2b) balance sheet. EP was confident CoC at par won't kick in by it avoiding Junk ratings and S&P language since is indicative it will leave it at BBB- initially. Still EBITDA was £575m last year nearly all from GLS - if Royal Mail doesn't turn more profitable, BS looks well HY levered. We maintain a cheap view on the €28s at Z+155/B+196/4.3% and recommend hedging EP debt load + poor earnings (leading to CoC/HY ratings) with long €26s that still gives +80bps over govvies in carry and +4.7pts on it being junked. Downside on a reversion to FV is limited to -0.5pts/+20bps and obviously does not need to be realised/will roll down.
Even with the hedge we are not confident enough to extend 28s view to the £30s (despite about +100bps of pickup on XCCY for the 2yr extension).
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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.