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Investors To Focus on September CPI Inflation (Oct 8)

HUNGARY
  • We have seen recently that CEE central banks have started to surprise the market by hiking more aggressively to curb the inflationary pressures (Czech Republic, Romania and Poland).
  • It will be interesting to see if the NBH will also surprise investors in its policy meeting on October 19.
  • Last week, NBH Deputy Governor Virag mentioned in a conference in Warsaw that the monetary tightening campaign was 'far from the end' and that the central bank will continue to hike by 15bps in the coming months.
  • With the NBH expected to raise by 15bps at each of the last three meetings in 2021, it would raise the benchmark to 2.1% by the end of the year.
  • However, odds for another 30bps hike at the next meeting could increase if CPI inflation surprises positively on Friday (Oct 8). According to the few sell-side estimates, inflation is expected to accelerate to 5.5% YoY in September, up from 4.9% the previous, which is still significantly above the 4-percen NBH upper tolerance band.
  • With NBH Governor Matolcsy recently calling the soaring inflation a 'public enemy', the central bank is very likely to surprise the market this month if inflation accelerates too much.
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