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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EUROZONE DATA
Eurozone industrial production contracted further in July, with the -1.1% M/M (SWDA) print below the -0.9% expected, and the -2.2% Y/Y (WDA) figure badly missing even the lowest analyst expectation in the Bloomberg survey (of -1.0%; median was -0.3%).
- Capital goods production fell 2.7% M/M / though up 0.4% Y/Y; durable consumer goods -2.2% M/M / -6.7% Y/Y; non-durables +0.4% M/M / -0.6% Y/Y; energy +1.6% M/M / -5.7% Y/Y.
- As usual we take these figures warily, as there have once again been significant distortions created by the Irish data (-6.6% M/M after +11.7% Jun; -6.1% Y/Y after +6.3% Jun): the ex-Ireland Eurozone figures would have been closer to -0.7% M/M and -1.9% Y/Y (the previous month Irish IP boosted EZ 0.7pp M/M and 0.4pp Y/Y; see chart below for MNI estimates of M/M contributions to the aggregate).
- There can be no doubt though that even considering these distortions, Eurozone industrial production is in a slump. All but 2 members (Malta, France) saw negative Y/Y IP in July and the IP index is at the same level as in 2018.
- The key story that we already knew from the national level data that Germany's industrial sector is deteriorating quickly, and it was the biggest M/M drag on IP in July (ex-Ireland) for the 3rd consecutive month.
- With factory orders down 11.7% M/M in July, the biggest drop since April 2020, and flat IFO manuf expectations/ German Manuf PMI <40, it's unlikely we will see much relief soon.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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