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ISM Manufacturing In Line But With Weaker Internals On Balance

US DATA
  • The overall ISM manufacturing index was broadly in line with consensus in December as it increased to 47.4 (cons 47.1) after 46.7.
  • Ahead of Friday’s payrolls report, the employment index surprisingly increased to 48.1 (cons 46.5) from 45.8. It was the first increase for three months but doesn’t break back above 50 and indeed the press release notes: “Panelists’ companies continued actions to reduce head counts in December, primarily through layoffs.”
  • However, other factors were clearly softer than expected, including prices paid slipping to 45.2 (cons 49.5) as it fully reversed the November surprise spike higher. It remains off recent lows of 41.8 (Jun’22) and 39.4 (Dec’22).
  • New orders also offered a weak read, surprisingly falling to 47.1 (cons 49.1) after 48.3, with the -1.2pt drop only partly unwinding November’s 2.8pt bounce. The index has been volatile from month-to-month but averaged 47.0 in Q4 and 47.8 in Q3.
  • Within orders and in the opposite move to last month, export orders bounced 3.9pts to 49.9 for their highest reading since May’s 50.0, implying latest weakness lay domestically.

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