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ISM Mfg: Tepid Prices Paid, Employment Falls But New Orders Firm

US DATA
  • The ISM mfg index increased by slightly less than expected in July to 46.4 (cons 46.9) after 46.0.
  • Prices paid caught attention as they bounced by less than expected to 42.6 (cons 44.0) after 41.8, rather than climbing back near May’s 44.3 although that too was down heavily on prior levels.
  • Employment saw another heavy decline, falling -3.7pts to 44.4 after June’s -3.3pts to 44.4 for its lowest since Jul’20 and pre-pandemic the lowest since 2009 having come very close in 2016. The latest decline mirrors the particularly sharp decline in yesterday’s Chicago PMI. Of course though, services have a much heavier weight in overall employment when it comes to indications for Friday's payrolls.
  • The new orders index meanwhile saw another solid increase to 47.3 (+1.7pts) for its highest since Oct’22, even if that remains firmly in contraction territory. An increase in inventories meant no further progress in the NO-inventory measure as a forward-looking indicator of manufacturing activity after its recent improvement back into positive territory.

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