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ISM Services Beats As Strong Domestic Demand Clashes With Dire Foreign Demand

US DATA
  • The ISM service index surprisingly increased from 54.4 to 56.5 (cons 53.3) in November, showing no sign of the continued relative weakness in last week’s manufacturing print (49.0, -1.2pts).
  • In doing so, it re-widens the service ISM-PMI gap to 10.3 although it remains off latest highs of 13.2 from Aug as the two surveys portray notably different health checks on the service economy.
  • Notably, the ISM survey paints a picture of domestic strength vs foreign weakness: business activity/production and imports surged (+9pts) but new orders (-0.5pts) were led by extremely weak new export orders (38.4, -9.3pts) at levels last seen in the depths of the GFC and pandemic.
  • Minimal change in prices, still elevated at 70.0 (-0.7pts). It’s off a high of 84.6 in April but far stickier than the peak to latest decline from 87 to 43 for manufacturing, further evidence of continued relative strength in service inflation.

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