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ISRAEL: BoI Rate Decision Coming Up (14:00BST), Hold Unanimously Expected

ISRAEL
  • JP Morgan think that the BoI will continue to err on the side of caution, as the geopolitical environment remains tense. While they don’t anticipate a cut at the next couple of meetings, an accelerated cut in DM should provide space going into 2025. JPM continue to expect a 25bp cut in November, with a total of 75bps by mid-2025, but it appears that risks are skewed toward a more delayed and shallower cycle.
  • BNY say no change is expected as sequential inflation ticked higher in July and the supply issues challenge the economy. They note that Fed easing could provide some relief, but structural factors domestically and the associated risk premium will continue to constrain policy space.
  • HSBC expect no change in the key rate. Their base case scenario assumes that a cautious easing cycle will start in Q4 2024, taking the key rate to 3.25% by end-2025. That said, they note that risks are increasingly tilted towards a delay to the easing cycle.
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