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ITALY: 2023 Debt/GDP Ratio Revised Lower Following ISTAT GDP Revision

ITALY
CEEMEAEurozoneItalyBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

The Italian 2023 budget deficit/GDP ratio was revised to 7.2%, from an initial estimate of 7.4%, following an upward revision to nominal GDP by ISTAT. The 2023 debt/GDP ratio was revised to 134.6%, from an initial 137.3%.

  • While these revisions don’t absolve Italy of any well-known fiscal issues, it provides the Government with a slightly more favourable initial condition for its medium-term fiscal sustainability plan.
  • The MNI Policy Team reported last week that the medium-term plan is expected to be submitted to the EC today, having now incorporated ISTAT’s revisions (which covered 1995-2023 national accounts data). 
  • Finance Minister Giorgetti noted in a statement that “The revisions communicated by Istat today are small and don’t change the principles of the fiscal plan already reviewed by the cabinet”, per BBG.
  • Real GDP actually saw a 0.2pp downward revision in 2023 to 0.7% Y/Y, though there were upward revisions to 2022 (+0.7pp to 4.7% Y/Y) and 2021 (+0.6pp to 8.9% Y/Y) readings.
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The Italian 2023 budget deficit/GDP ratio was revised to 7.2%, from an initial estimate of 7.4%, following an upward revision to nominal GDP by ISTAT. The 2023 debt/GDP ratio was revised to 134.6%, from an initial 137.3%.

  • While these revisions don’t absolve Italy of any well-known fiscal issues, it provides the Government with a slightly more favourable initial condition for its medium-term fiscal sustainability plan.
  • The MNI Policy Team reported last week that the medium-term plan is expected to be submitted to the EC today, having now incorporated ISTAT’s revisions (which covered 1995-2023 national accounts data). 
  • Finance Minister Giorgetti noted in a statement that “The revisions communicated by Istat today are small and don’t change the principles of the fiscal plan already reviewed by the cabinet”, per BBG.
  • Real GDP actually saw a 0.2pp downward revision in 2023 to 0.7% Y/Y, though there were upward revisions to 2022 (+0.7pp to 4.7% Y/Y) and 2021 (+0.6pp to 8.9% Y/Y) readings.