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Italy Hydro Stocks End 11-Week Upward Trend

POWER

Italian hydropower reserves ended their 11-week rising trend last week (week 29) as they declined amid relatively low rainfall, however, stocks remained at a surplus to the same week last year and narrowed their surplus to the 5-year avg.

  • Italian hydro reservoirs stood at 3.82TWh at the end of last week, dropping from 3.86TWh the week prior.
  • Stocks narrowed their surplus to the 5-year average for the first time in three weeks to 0.20TWh from 0.23TWh the week prior.
  • But reservoir levels were 0.06TWh higher on the year compared to being 0.05TWh above in week 28.
  • Hydropower generation in Italy last week fell slightly on the week to 1.41TWh from 1.44TWh.
  • And gas-fired generation last week climbed sharply to 3.12TWh from 2.79TWh – reducing the need to hydro baseload generation
  • Wind output last week decreased to 188GWh from 218GWh in week 28 and 327GWh in week 27. Solar PV output fell slightly on the week to 842GWh from 852GWh.
  • Looking forward, ECMWF weather forecasts for Torino – close to Italy’s hydro-intensive region – indicate precipitation to be mostly in line with the 30-year norm of around 0.5mm for most days over 26 July-3 August – likely placing downward pressure on stocks.
  • And the latest ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggests max temperatures between 30-34.1C over the same period– which could spur cooling demand and further weigh down stocks.


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