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Itaú Expecting 25BP Cut in August, Reasons To Remain Cautious

BRAZIL
  • *BRAZIL 2023 INFLATION ESTIMATE CUT TO 5.1% FROM 5.3% AT ITAU
  • *ITAU SEES BRAZIL SELIC RATE CUT OF 0.25PPT IN AUGUST
  • Further colour:
  • “The Brazilian central bank will likely start to ease monetary policy with a 25-bp cut in the August meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), followed by successive 50-bp reductions from September onwards, ending 2023 at 12.00% and 2024 at 9.50%.”
  • “Falling current inflation and improved expectations after the inflation target was maintained at 3% are important developments, but resilient economic activity, little slack in the labor market, inflation (and core measures in particular) remaining at high levels, the outlook for continuing interest rate hikes in DMs, as well as the still-significant fiscal challenge are factors that call for caution with medium-term inflation projections, and requires parsimony in the conduct of monetary easing, with gradual interest rate cuts.”
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