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Itaú Expecting Further 25BP Cuts in First Half of 2024

PERU
  • Itaú expect annual inflation in Peru to gradually fall further, reaching 2.8% by the end of 2024. In this context and amid weak activity, Itaú expect the central bank to continue easing monetary policy (with 25-bp rate cuts) in 1H24, from the current 6.75% down to 5% by July-2024, and staying at that level through to year-end.
    • Itaú detailed that domestic CPI expanded 0.41% mom in December, below their 0.51% forecast, but above market consensus of 0.31%. Looking at the breakdown, the main contributors to the monthly print were food and non-alcoholic beverages (contribution of 19 bps) and transportation (14 bps).
    • Core inflation (excluding energy and food items) was also well behaved in December, rising by 0.36% mom (from 0.54% a year ago). On an annual basis, headline inflation fell to 3.24% in December (from 3.64% in November), while core inflation stood at a low 2.90% (from 3.09%).
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