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Itaú Expects BanRep To Maintain Cautious Stance With 50bp Cut This Week

COLOMBIA
  • Itaú believes that the BanRep Board will maintain a cautious stance with another 50bp cut to 10.75% this week. However, a high CPI comparison base in 3Q23, coupled with an earlier begin of the Fed easing cycle than expected by the BanRep technical staff, could give the board room to accelerate the cycle in the latter part of the year.
  • Although headline inflation increased slightly in June, and activity have been surprising to the upside, core inflation has continued to fall. However, prices of some services remain sticky. Moreover, compared to the last meeting, the one-year inflation expectations dropped by 7bp to 4.23%, approaching the target range. Therefore, the one-year ex-ante real rate increased to 7.02% (6.95% in the previous meeting), remaining highly contractionary.
  • Following the interest rate decision on Wednesday, the central bank’s staff will publish the 3Q24 monetary policy report on Friday. The report will provide further insights on the macroeconomic scenario consistent with the Board’s decision and guidance.
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