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Itaú Revise Year-End Rate Forecast To 4.75%

CHILE
  • In line with today’s BCCh economist survey upward adjustment, Itaú have also revised their year-end rate forecast higher by 25bps to 4.75% from 4.50% previously. The bank cites higher inflation and the Fed’s more cautious stance as leading their revisions.
  • The CLP’s recent depreciation and another large upward inflation surprise at the start of the year, combined with the likelihood of the Fed’s easing cycle starting even later than Itaú had expected, have led them to revise several nominal forecasts upward.
  • Itaú now expect a year-end exchange rate of 890 pesos per dollar (850 previously), with an appreciation to 830 in 2025. Given the CLP’s higher average path, Itaú raised their year-end inflation forecast to 3.5% (+70 bps from their February scenario).
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