-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
-
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessJ.P.Morgan Note Divergence In 10s Vs. Fundamental Drivers
Late on Thursday J.P.Morgan noted that (today’s) “(data indicates the economy is slowing and would further justify the Fed moving on hold by early-2023, all else equal. However, the flattening of the Treasury curve seems at odds with this, running counter to the long-end steepening we’ve observed into other Fed on hold periods.”
- “Given this backdrop, it stands out amid this large rally that intermediate Treasuries have diverged somewhat from their drivers: 10-year yields appear 22bp too low after adjusting for the market’s near-term Fed policy as well as medium-term inflation and growth expectations. These sorts of valuations would only be justified if OIS forwards priced in a terminal Fed Funds rate at least 30-40bp lower than current levels, or if TIPS breakevens narrowed 25bp from current levels. As a result, this is the largest divergence we have observed since late-August.”
- They haven’t issued a trade recommendation on this observation.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.