POWER
Poland’s Jan 25 power contract continued to climb on 11 Dec to be supported by small gains in emissions and European coal to resist upward revisions of average temperatures in Warsaw on the day. Spot prices climbed to their highest since 5 Nov amid low wind and cooler temps, however, wind is estimated at 54-68% load factors over 16-18 Dec – likely weighing on costs over the period.
- Poland Jan25 baseload power settled at PLN465.26/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN463.34/MWh on 10 Dec, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- EUA DEC 24 up 0.6% at 68.60 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal JAN 25 up 0.6% at 112 USD/MT at 13:40 BST
- Average temperatures in Warsaw are still expected to flip above the norm on 15 Dec but are now expected to climb to as high as 9.7C on 20 Dec and remain above the seasonal average over 15-25 Dec – likely weighing on heating demand.
- The Jan 25 contract traded 32 times in 33 lots from 33 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- Jan opened at PLN465.50/MWh before rising to a daily high of PLN466/MWh in the middle of the session and dropping to PLN465/MWh at the end of the session.
- Closer in, the day-ahead continued upward for the fourth session to rise to PLN817.16/MWh for Thursday delivery from PLN786.73/MWh for Wednesday amid wind expected at 0.792GW tomorrow compared 0.521GW today, while temperatures are estimated at 0.34C from 0.45C on Wednesday.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind is expected at 0.702GW, or an 8% load factor on 13 December – which could keep prices elevated.
- Wind is then expected between 39-68% load factors over 14-18 Dec.
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