Jan retail sales -0.3% vs +0.2% expected....>

US DATA: Jan retail sales -0.3% vs +0.2% expected (+0.3% whisper), flat 

ex mtr veh vs +0.5% expected, showing significant weakness that followed 

downward revisions to both November and December sales. 

- Analysts have a tendency to aim too low with their ex-auto forecasts 

in Jan, so today's data go against that trend.

- Motor vehicle sales -1.3%, a larger decline than analysts expected, 

accounting for much of the forecast miss for overall sales. 

- Jan sales -0.2% ex. mv and gas and flat ex auto, bldg materials, gas 

and food services, suggesting underlying weakness.

- Gas station sales +1.6% (sales ex. gas -0.4%), but bldg mat -2.4% and 

food services flat. The remaining components were mixed.

- Total sales flat vs 4Q average at an annual rate and were only +1.8% 

annualized ex motor vehicles and +1.2% ex autos, building materials, 

gas, and food services, suggesting a slower start for 1Q PCE.