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January activity data (including GDP) due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
  • The UK economy is seen expanding by a modest 0.1% in January, but a robust performance from the auto industry suggests some upside risk to forecasts. This follows a -0.2% decline in December when the rapid spread of the Omicron Covid variant pushed many workers into isolation.
  • Industrial and manufacturing production are likely to see slow m/m growth rates again, forecasted to be at +0.1% m/m and +0.2% m/m respectively, stronger in the annualised reading (+1.9% y/y and +3.1% y/y) largely due to the reference period being in strict lockdown.
  • In terms of market pricing, there is currently 30bp priced for the March meeting (25bp fully priced with a 20% probability of a 50bp hike), 103bp priced by the June meeting (one 50bp and two 25bp hikes fully priced) and 152bp priced by the end of the year.
  • Today's data is unlikely to move markets too much and there is two-way risk. At this point inflation data is the driver for the MPC with commodity prices and the labour market (including wage growth) the key. The growth outlook is likely to deteriorate further as the cost of living increases but growth is less important to the rate outlook than at many other points in the cycle. And, even more so the pace of growth that has already happened is of lesser importance.
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