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January Economic Activity Scheduled at 1200GMT / 0800ET

BRAZIL
  • The BCB will publish January economic activity data at 1200GMT (0800ET), with analysts expecting activity to have risen by 0.6% m/m, following a 0.82% increase in December. In annual terms, the economy is expected to have expanded by 3.7% y/y, vs. +1.36% previously. Weekly trade balance data will also be released at 1800GMT (1400ET). Earlier, FGV IGP-10 inflation fell by 0.17% m/m in March, vs. -0.30% expected and -0.65% previously. Meanwhile, IPC-S weekly inflation rose by 0.38% m/m in the month to March 15, vs. +0.56% previously.
    • Jan. Economic Activity YoY, est. 3.70%, prior 1.36%
    • Jan. Economic Activity MoM, est. 0.60%, prior 0.82%
  • Later this week, attention turns to the BCB monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Though a further 50bp cut to 10.75% is widely expected, consistent with previous guidance, market participants will be focused on any changes that may be made to the forward guidance regarding the pace of rate cuts going forward. Different BCB officials have recently indicated the possibility of changing the guidance, which will have been supported by last week’s stronger-than-expected January retail sales, services and labour market data.
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