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JAPAN: JPY Bounce Earlier This Week Confirmed as Corrective

JAPAN
  • The hawkish SEP dot plot, Powell’s guarded tone and the consistent reminder of focusing on the totality of the data have prompted US yields and the greenback to reverse their US CPI inspired moves. Despite treasury yields being unable to retrace fully, USDJPY has recovered the entirety of its initial decline on Wednesday, and remains 0.3% higher on the week. The close proximity of the Bank of Japan decision on Friday may have added a short-term positioning dynamic to the retracement.
  • We noted on Monday that the recent move down in EURJPY appears to be a correction, with the medium-term trend structure remaining bullish. The cross remains well underpinned by trendline support off the December 2023 low and the 50-day EMA, which now intersect around 167.70. As noted, sights remain on 171.56, the Apr 29 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
  • In similar vein, bullish conditions remain firmly in place for GBPJPY. After closing back above the psychological 200 mark earlier this week, the pair has been consistently edging higher and eating into the steep declines seen back in 2008.
  • Our full preview of the BOJ meeting with analyst views can be found here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/64744/BOJ%20...
  • Earlier this week, MNI noted that any reduction in purchases will be accompanied by a pledge to stay in the market and to ensure there is no spike in long-end yields, which in effect could equate to yield-curve control and may keep any positive reaction for the Yen in check.
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