Jefferies economists Ward McCarthy and......>

US VIEW: Jefferies economists Ward McCarthy and Tom Simons said next week, "for

the first time in a long time, jobless claims could be the highlight. We expect

a roughly 30K increase vs. last week resulting from the devastation resulting

from Hurricane Harvey and the continued flooding in the Greater Houston

metropolitan area. It is possible that the spike could be even larger."

- They added "we're going off of claims following Hurricane Katrina in August

2005 as a template. Back in 2005, the claims print for the wk following

Katrina's landfall was up about 10K from the prior wk. The claims print 2 wks

following was up about 100K from the avg heading into the storm. It is possible

that technological changes over the past 12 yrs will result in more efficient

claims processing and a bigger, faster jump, but we do not know for sure" so it

"bears watching with upside risks." Other data include Tuesday's factory orders,

which "will be dragged down by aircraft weakness;" Wed "July trade balance that

is due to widen if the advanced release is any indication, the Aug. ISM services

index," Thu revised Q2 productivity & unit labor costs, they said.