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JGBS: Cash Bonds Mixed, BOJ Ueda’s Speech Underway

JGBS
GlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsJapanRegionMarkets

In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are slightly weaker, -3 compared to settlement levels, after giving back Friday’s overnight gains.

  • Japan's September core machine orders were below market expectations. They printed at -0.7% m/m, against a market expectation of a +1.5% rise. The prior month was a -1.9% dip. We fell through all the months of Q3. In y/y terms, core machine orders were down to -4.8%. This is well off the Q2 highs, but still above earlier 2024 lows sub -10%y/y.
  • Greater focus today will rest on BoJ Governor Ueda's speech. Reuters notes the Governor has started speaking to business executives and then will hold a press conference from 1:45pm-2:15pm local time (0445-0515GMT). Hints around the rate outlook will be eyed closely.
  • Cash US tsys are slightly richer across benchmarks in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s bull-steepening.
  • Cash JGBs are slightly mixed across benchmarks but yield movements have been limited to +/- 1bp. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1bp higher at 1.083% versus the cycle high of 1.108%.
  • The swaps curve has twist-steepened, pivoting at the 20-year, with rates 2bps lower to 2bps higher. Swap spreads are tighter out to the 10-year.
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In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are slightly weaker, -3 compared to settlement levels, after giving back Friday’s overnight gains.

  • Japan's September core machine orders were below market expectations. They printed at -0.7% m/m, against a market expectation of a +1.5% rise. The prior month was a -1.9% dip. We fell through all the months of Q3. In y/y terms, core machine orders were down to -4.8%. This is well off the Q2 highs, but still above earlier 2024 lows sub -10%y/y.
  • Greater focus today will rest on BoJ Governor Ueda's speech. Reuters notes the Governor has started speaking to business executives and then will hold a press conference from 1:45pm-2:15pm local time (0445-0515GMT). Hints around the rate outlook will be eyed closely.
  • Cash US tsys are slightly richer across benchmarks in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s bull-steepening.
  • Cash JGBs are slightly mixed across benchmarks but yield movements have been limited to +/- 1bp. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1bp higher at 1.083% versus the cycle high of 1.108%.
  • The swaps curve has twist-steepened, pivoting at the 20-year, with rates 2bps lower to 2bps higher. Swap spreads are tighter out to the 10-year.