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Job Growth Forecast To Continue, School Holidays May Muddy Data

AUSTRALIA DATA

The October labour market data is published on Thursday and job gains and low unemployment are expected to continue, but school holidays could drive some volatility as they did in April and July. Employment is forecast to rise 24k, close to the 3-month average, according to Bloomberg consensus with the unemployment increasing a notch to 3.7%. In recent months, there has been a shift towards part-time jobs and lower hours worked, which suggests the labour market is easing.

  • There is a range of employment forecasts between -8.7k and +45k with most between +10k and +30k. Westpac is in line with consensus, but CBA is below at 20k (but the referendum may have provided a boost) and ANZ and NAB are above projecting +27k and +30k respectively.
  • The September unemployment rate came in at 3.6% or 3.557%, so not far from 3.5%. ANZ is looking for it to fall that bit further to 3.5% in October. Consensus has a small rise to 3.7%, which is also CBA’s forecast, but NAB and Westpac expect it to be unchanged at 3.6%. Forecasts range from 3.5% to 3.8%.
  • The participation rate unexpectedly dropped 0.3pp in September to 66.7%. It is forecast to rise 0.1pp to 66.8%.
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