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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Initial jobless claims pulled back slightly more than expected to a seasonally adjusted 235k (cons 238k) in the week to Jul 20 after an upward revised 245k (initial 243k).
- The prior upward revision meant the four-week average still ticked 1k higher to 236k, just off the 239k as of late June that was the highest since Aug 2023.
- The NSA data sticks to a familiar pattern, -56k after the +38k increase the week prior, whilst the fact that Texas was the only large state with an uncharacteristic increase helps bolster last week’s argument about Hurricane Beryl impact (with claims rising a further +6.4k after a particularly sharp +11.9k).
- The next largest weekly increase was the 0.8k in Tennessee, the only other state that didn’t see a decline in NSA initial claims.
- Continuing claims also came in lower than expected, falling to a seasonally adjusted 1851k (cons 1868k) after a downward revised 1860k (initial 1867k) to pull back off fresh highs since Nov 2021.
- The NSA data importantly didn’t push any higher relative to prior years, seeing as they’re already right at the high end of recent years excluding immediate pandemic fallout.
- The latest data point to a trend where prior labor market deterioration appears to have temporarily stalled but with the level of claims still clearly higher than those during past periods of labor market tightness.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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