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Jobless Claims Surprise Higher, Potential Beryl Impact Only Slowly Dissipating

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims were notably higher than expected in the week to Jul 27, at a seasonally adjusted 249k (cons 236k) after an unrevised 235k.
  • It pushes the four-week average up another 2k to 238k, just shy of late June's 239k for what was the highest since Sep 2023 for a further gap to the 2019 average of 218k.
  • At a non-seasonally adjusted 25.5k, Texas claims continue to see impact from Hurricane Beryl but have at least dropped. The -6.2k helped drive the -10k for national claims.
  • Continuing claims were also higher than expected at a seasonally adjusted 1877k (cons 1855k) in the week to Jul 20. It’s for a fresh high since Nov 2021, with the latest increase extended by a marginally downward revised 1844k (initial 1851k) in the prior week covering a payrolls reference period.
  • Non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims continue to run right at the high end of years shortly before the pandemic – see charts.

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