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Jobs Growth Strong, RBNZ Unlikely To Ease Soon

NEW ZEALAND

While the Q2 unemployment rate rose more than expected to 3.6% from 3.4%, the labour market was actually stronger than expected. Employment grew 1% q/q to be up 4% y/y after 0.8% and 2.5% in Q1 with the participation rate rising 0.4pp to 72.4%, a new high since 1986. The data show that the NZ economy continues to provide jobs despite slower growth but is unlikely to be enough to prompt another RBNZ hike but also means a cut is some way off.

  • Working-age population rose 0.7% q/q to be up 2.2% y/y and while many found jobs, with the strongest annual employment growth since Q3 2017, unemployment still rose. The employment rate increased to a series high of 69.8%. The number of unemployed was 5.8% q/q higher and 13.5% y/y, highest since Q4 2020. While vacancies are down the ratio with unemployment is still elevated.
  • Underutilisation also rose to 9.8% from 9.1%, which is still historically low, driven by underemployed part-time workers. Part-time employment growth was stronger than full-time at 2.9% q/q and 9.9% y/y compared with 0.5% and 2.6%.
  • Hours worked rose 0.3% q/q to be up 3.1% y/y after 3.8% in Q1.
  • Stats NZ noted that tourism-related employment returned to its pre-Covid level and even though it is around 9.5% of total employment, it accounted for about a quarter of Q2 annual employment growth.
NZ employment y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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