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JP Morgan Continue to Favour Long TRY Positions Into the Summer Period

TRY
  • JP Morgan say there was once again heavy price action in USDTRY yesterday morning towards 32.30, which was followed by firm state bank bids back around 32.38 in an effort to absorb the inflows. JPM continued to see leveraged/rm accounts selling USDTRY vs outflows by international corporates.
  • They add that local client flows continue to be skewed towards LHS which can also be seen by grand bazaar FX rates closer to 32.00. Overall, JPM continue to favour long TRY positions into the summer period.
  • JPM still think that political support for Simsek on the fiscal side and the CBRT’s commitment to deliver hikes if inflation deteriorates may lead to more real TRY appreciation in the medium term as a result of internationals re-engaging with bullish TRY positions coupled with better CA dynamics for the summer due to tourism related inflows.

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