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JP Morgan Expect 75bp Rate Cut in Nov, Followed by 50bp Moves

HUNGARY
  • After taking into account today’s downside inflation surprise in food and core, JPM say it becomes quite likely that headline CPI will be sub 7% at the end of this year. They say they don’t expect food weakness to last forever, but absent a very sharp U-turn near term, food inflation can fall to low single digits in December and possibly close to zero.
  • With core inflation momentum running at sub-4% as well as a solid external balance position, the double-digit rates still ran by the NBH are clearly excessive, and hence, there is room to cut, JPM say.
  • They expect that later this month the NBH will cut the policy rate another 75bps to 11.5% and shift lower to 50bp steps from December. If the next inflation print also surprises positively, they see risks of the 75bp pace being extended a bit longer.
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