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JP Morgan Maintain 4.8% y/y CPI Forecast

BRAZIL
  • JP Morgan say last week’s CPI print did not meaningfully change their view of core disinflation going forward, particularly contingent on a normalisation of the labour markets in the next quarters.
  • Despite the upward surprise, they revised down their August CPI forecast from 0.28% m/m to 0.12%, primarily because some of the auto price rebound they expected for Aug-Sep was anticipated, and partly on lower food CPI in the high-frequency price surveys.
  • They continue assuming an 8% wholesale gasoline price hike in mid-August, as the gap between international and domestic prices is back to the highest level since the Russia-Ukraine conflict started. All in all, they keep their 4.8% y/y CPI forecast for this year.

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