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JP Morgan More Dovish Than CBR Communications

RUSSIA
  • JP Morgan say they remain slightly more dovish vs. CBR communications, as they don’t think the inflation process was contaminated much by FX passthrough or higher inflation expectations and see more space for easing later in 2024.
  • They see the key rate at 9% by end-2024 (Prior: 8%), averaging at around 11% next year compared to updated CBR forecasts which implies that in the base case the policy rate will average at around 12% in 2024.
  • They say that with monetary policy tighter than expected, risks to their 2024 growth forecast of 1.5% appear skewed to the downside.

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