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JP Morgan view ahead of this week's MPC meeting

BOE
  • JP Morgan does "not see additional easing until the contours of the recovery become clearer or a renewed shock hits."
  • On forecasts: JP Morgan notes that "it is unclear whether the Bank will produce a full economic forecast as opposed to a simpler "scenario" analysis as in May. Either way we would expect the BoE to indicate changes to the growth outlook."
  • "It is likely to project a later peak in the unemployment rate which leaves inflation undershooting the target into 2021. That would highlight an easing bias."
  • On the ELB: "We may get some hints on the BoE's thinking over negative rates" However, JP Morgan states "Our best guess is that the BoE will this year eventually conclude it has more space to lower rates. But we think the Bank will want to tread carefully, and will be reluctant to start experimenting with negative rates at a time of significant volatility or uncertainty. We would expect it to signal that it sees scope to cut rates to zero as a potential next step if the circumstances arise. But we would expect it to supplement that more limited move with a broader package of measures that includes further use of credit easing."
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