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Needle Still Points South

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Heading North

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Bull Rally Accelerates

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Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

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JPMorgan saw the August report as supporting their view "that the rapid run of sequential month-on-month inflation from earlier this year remains behind us".

  • They saw it as "possible that the spread of the Delta variant weighed on prices in certain areas".
  • There were "several different stories playing out in different areas", with travel/tourism areas normalizing; supply chain issues impacting the auto sector; and firm monthly gains in shelter ex-hotel metrics.
  • "The rent measures remain in focus given their large weights and some alternative rent measures showing very strong price increases lately."
  • Their estimate of core PCE M/M is +0.29% (3.6% Y/Y).