JPM Results Preview: Trading Slowdown, CRE and Rate Impacts To Be Key Features

JPM kicks off bank reporting season tomorrow (12-Apr) with commercial real estate likely to be a major feature alongside lower trading revenues but perhaps better rate tailwinds than expected three months ago. As the sector bellwether, this has wide implications for all the global IBs.

• Key trading lines: FICC are seen as likely down in the low-teens across the industry so JPM consensus at -8% is expected to be one of the better performers – it’s often seen as a FICC bellwether. Equities are seen as slightly lower y/y.
• Key primary lines: M&A revenues are finally showing some (post-COVID) signs of recovery, Dealogic reporting +11% for the industry over the first two months. Similarly, tight spreads have led to strong 1Q24 corporate issuance so DCM should be meaningfully better.
• Revenue outlook: at 4Q23 results, CEO Dimon was bullish in guidance, especially on NII, but consensus expectations have barely moved, so updated guidance there, especially with US rates seen higher-for-longer, could be a positive for the equity market.
• CRE: mgmt comments are various conferences in the quarter were generally along the lines of “not getting better any time soon” but “no systemic issues imminent”. Updated news here will have broad implications across CRE-linked issuers (DePfa, Aareal and the wider CRE company sector).

Results due at 1200 (London time) with conf call at 1330, available here: https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/news/2024/jpmc-to-host-first-quarter-2024-earnings-call