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Free AccessJPMorgan on Brazil Election & Selic Rate Forecasts
- Most political analysts believe that demonstrations last week were not a game changer, highlighting that they are unlikely to have either given or taken a big enough chunk of votes to change the election outlook.
- The next big event in schedule relates to the final 10-day sprint, when debates may take place. Two are scheduled for September 24th and 29th, but it is not clear whether the main candidates will be present.
- While the recent negative inflation prints may provide some relief, JPM think that the options for Copom’s next meeting are open.
- In fact, last week BCB’s Governor Campos Neto and Dep. Governor Serra made some hawkish comments, stating that the job on inflation was not done yet and that BCB should be vigilant.
- While JPM recognize this is a very close call, for now they remain of the out-of-consensus view that the board will opt for a final 25bp hike to the Selic rate, raising it to 14% and keeping it at that level at least until the end of 2Q23.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.