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JPMorgan Say Core CPI Softness Questions BCCh Decision To Slow Easing Pace

CHILE
  • JPMorgan: So far, FX pass-through has proven even more limited than JPM had entertained, aligning to the current phase of the business cycle. The core inflation softness evidenced in the September and October questions the CBC decision to slowdown the monetary easing pace and reinforces the idea that the output gap is already negative. The slower recalibration of the real rate may extend the period of negative output gap for longer.
  • In terms of forecasts, the year-end headline CPI is trimmed by 10bp, to 4.0%oya. Ex. volatile CPI is expected to continue its deceleration on an annual basis, converging to 5.4%oya by the year end (revised form 5.8%, previously). In both cases, JPM’s base scenario encompasses lower headline and core inflation levels than the latest BCCh central scenario for 4.3% and 6.3%, respectively.
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