FREELAND: CANADA WON'T ESCALATE OR BACK DOWN ON US TRADE FIGHT

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 8/13/28/50-Week BTF Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JPY Volatility Raises Intervention Questions

FOREX
  • The greenback trended higher across US hours, aided by further gains to cycle highs for the belly and longer-end of the US curve. Bear steepening of US yields supported the USD Index through to resume it's medium-term uptrend off the July lows, putting USD/JPY briefly above Y150.00.
  • A sharp and abrupt fall in the pair off the highs has raised considerable suspicion of official intervention in the currency rate (a Japanese finance ministry official declined to comment on the matter), but markets may have to wait until the month-end BoJ intervention data release for any confirmation.
  • The strong recovery off the USD/JPY lows may suggest a lack of follow through from any intervention, with spot recouping close to 175 pips off the 147.43 low. This keeps the pressure turned higher for now, and markets will be looking to test if any further breaks of Y150 will be followed by an abrupt decline.
  • AUD and NZD traded poorly across the session, with the continuity in RBA policy and the openness to further hikes doing little to prop the currency. Weakness across equity markets sapped higher beta currency performance, keeping AUD/USD's downtrend intact and opening new pullback lows. 0.6170 marks next key support.
  • Focus Wednesday turns to the final composite and services PMI data from across Europe, as well as the ADP and ISM Services releases. JOLTs data cemented the strong labour market backdrop evident in Monday's ISM Manufacturing Index, potentially posing upside risks to Friday's NFP.
  • Consensus looks for Change in Nonfarm Payrolls of +170k, but the whisper number has already begun to populate higher.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.