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July CPI Inflation Expected At 6.95% Y/y

COLOMBIA
  • July CPI inflation data will be released at 0000BST(1900ET), with analysts expecting the headline rate to finally resume its downward trend, potentially dipping below 7% y/y, from 7.18% previously. Core inflation is also seen moderating further, to 7.36% y/y in July, from 7.64% in June.
    • July CPI YoY, est. 6.95%, prior 7.18%
    • July CPI MoM est. 0.28%, prior 0.32%
  • Meanwhile, latest data show that budget execution remained below the historical average through July, amid continued capex underperformance, leaving YTD execution at 45.4% (vs. 48.4% in 2023). This follows disappointing tax collection over the first half of the year, which was down 15% y/y in real terms.
  • JP Morgan says that lower revenues make additional fiscal trimming, or continued budget under-execution, necessary to comply with the revised fiscal deficit target. The government is aiming for a narrower 0.1% of GDP primary fiscal deficit next year (vs. 0.5% previously and 0.9% deficit for this year), consistent with a headline fiscal deficit of 4.7% of GDP.
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