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A 50bps Hike Very Likely At Next Week's Meeting


Final Debate Looms As Campaign Enters Last Stretch




EURGBP at session high

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U.S. CPI growth likely slowed in July, with the Bloomberg survey median pointing to a 0.5% M/M gain following June's 0.9% increase. CPI is seen rising 5.3% Y/Y after rising 5.4% in June. (PDF preview)

  • Ex-food and energy median is +0.4% M/M vs +0.9% June, with Y/Y 4.3% vs 4.5% in June.
  • Probably most closely eyed in the release will be the sequential progression of core M/M CPI: the range of estimates runs from 0.2-0.6%, with avg 0.44% and standard deviation of 0.09%.
  • A common theme in analysts' expectations for the July reading is for energy prices keeping headline CPI elevated, whereas "transitory" components such as used car prices set to see waning core upside pressures (though others such as airfares may continue to underpin).
  • On the flipside, there's a close focus on shelter prices - which is seen as the biggest upside risk to the overall "transitory" narrative into year-end and 2022.
  • Some are eyeing idiosyncratic categories that capture re-opening price pressures / labor passthrough: for example, restaurant prices.

Source: BLS, BBG, MNI