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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
A reminder that China trade figures for July print today. The market expects -13.2% y/y for exports, the prior was -12.4% (range of forecasts is -4.3% to -16.2%). On the import side the projection is -5.6% y/y, -6.8% was the June outcome (range of forecasts is -1.5% to -10.0%). The trade balance is forecast at $70bn, very close to June's $70.62bn (range of forecasts are $57bn to $92.1bn).
- On the export side, the manufacturing PMI new export orders print was down a touch in July to 46.3 from 46.4. This is down on levels that prevailed a year ago, although less so compared to June, see the chart below where we plot this series against y/y China export growth.
- Export growth remaining in negative y/y territory is consistent with weaker CNY NEER levels, although arguably this is already largely reflective in terms of current losses in the NEER.
- Imports will be eyed from a domestic demand standpoint, with on-going commodity import volumes a focus point.
Fig 1: China Export Growth Y/Y & Manufacturing PMI New Export Orders
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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