June ECB Pricing Little Changed By US Retail Sales, ECB Speakers

Stronger-than-expected US retail sales sees end-2024 ECB cut pricing unwind a touch, but June pricing remains steady with today’s speakers unsurprisingly aligning with the status quo i.e. a likely first rate cut at the June meeting.

• OIS contracts price 81bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24 (vs 86bps this morning) and 22bps through the June meeting.
• ECB Chief Economist Lane's speech added little new relative to President Lagarde’s post-decision press conference last week.
• Lane's speech reviewed the progress of current Euro-area disinflation, again noting the importance of the GDP deflator components (i.e. unit labour costs and unit profits) in helping inflation converge to target.
• We wrote about the mechanics of the GDP deflator (which includes key dates for the Q2 releases that the ECB will be paying particular attention to) here:.
• For our breakdown of the Q1 Eurozone GDP deflator, see here.
• Elsewhere, ECB’s Kazimir and Rehn both pointed to a likely rate cut in June should inflation evolve as expected in the interim.