June Employment Expected To Post Modest Rise

May employment data was very strong rising a much-higher-than-expected 75.9k with the unemployment rate declining to 3.6%. June data will be important to determine whether the labour market has continued to tighten or is showing signs of easing. Vacancies are down substantially but remain elevated.

• Given the size of the May rise in employment, there is a reasonable chance of payback in June with job numbers soft and so it will be important to remember that one month doesn’t make a trend.
• Bloomberg consensus is forecasting a modest 15k gain in June employment with estimates ranging from -10k to +40k. Most expect a rise between 10k and 25k. ANZ and Westpac expect a 25k gain in jobs, CBA +15k and NAB +10k.
• The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6% with forecasts between 3.4% and 3.7%. ANZ, NAB and Westpac are all in line with consensus but CBA expects it to rise to 3.7%. The May outcome was 3.551% and so it would not take much for it to drop to 3.5%.
• The participation rate is projected to stay at 66.9% but some economists expect a 0.1pp drop.