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June Trade Data Due At 1900BST

BRAZIL
  • Brazilian assets rallied yesterday, ahead of a meeting in the evening between President Lula and his ministerial team, potentially to discuss measures to curb government spending. In the run-up to the meeting, Lula said that his government sees fiscal responsibility as a commitment. Meanwhile, Haddad said that the central bank has the autonomy to act as it sees fit. The real rallied more than 2% against the dollar on the day, the largest gain since Jan 2023, with USDBRL closing around 5.55, still above initial support at 5.4597, the 20-day EMA.
  • Separately, Lula unveiled a record BRL 400bn amount of funding for the country’s agricultural sector yesterday as part of its Plano Safra crop financing plan. The plan provides credit to Brazil’s farms and ranches and will also include BRL 76bn toward financing for family farmers.
  • On the macro front today, trade data for June will be released at 1900BST(1400ET), with analysts looking for the surplus to come in a $5.5bn, following an $8.53bn surplus in May. June vehicle sales and production figures from Anfavea will also be published at 1400BST(0900ET).
    • June Trade Balance Monthly, est. $5.5b, prior $8.53b
    • June Imports Total, est. $22.5b, prior $21.8b
    • June Exports Total, est. $27.7b, prior $30.3b
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