Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
€1b WNG
- 8.5Y IPT MS+120-125 vs. FV 85 (-35)
- 12Y IPT MS+150a vs. FV 100 (-50)
- FV based on secondary (i.e. mainly €29s) but we don't see any reason to chase this below Mondelez's curve (90 & 102).
- Not sure why the 3.5Y term premium is +30bps on IPT - curve tend to be flatter out there for high-grade F&B.
No complaints from us - roadshow deck is tidy and co has solid operating metrics. Summary is €8b ingredients and flavour manufacturer, running mid-teen EBITDA margins, well diversified by region, net 1.6x levered now, has not exceeded low 2s in the last decade.
Given we have nothing bad to say feel free to browse Ontake Research - a short seller - who in 2021 made accusations on its M&A (prices paid for assets). Kerry management in-turn reported Ontake to the financial regulators in Ireland and UK saying the report was "full of inaccuracies and errors". The stock recovered quickly, and Ontake's website had reportedly disappeared by the close.
We don't see fundamentals better than Mondelez noting it is 4x the size and runs +5ppt higher margins - Kerry is tad more upstream giving it some more moat. Worth noting Comp International Flavour and Fragrances (IFF; Baa3/BBB-) has a €800m '26 (rest in $s) trading at Z+75 - quiet wide despite the similar operating metrics. Ratings reflect the higher leverage (net is in the 4-turns).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.