Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EURUSD
UK CPI data and continued ECB pushback on the degree of cuts priced by the market (although ECB President Lagarde conceded that the Bank is likely to cut rates by the summer) has limited the USD bid early today, leaving EUR/USD flat at $1.0875.
- Zooming out, the year-to-date recovery in the broader USD has seen the uptrend from the early November low in EUR/USD breached.
- Key support at the Jan 5 low was also breached on the move, strengthening the bearish threat.
- A move below early London lows ($1.0856) would open the way to the 50% retracement of the Oct-Dec ’24 rally ($1.0793)
- The YtD move lower comes despite the well-documented pushback from numerous ECB speakers re: the degree of cuts priced into the market, with similar pushback from the Fed/a move off dovish extremes for Fed pricing also noted.
- USD short positioning isn’t stretched but USD weakness is a consensus view for ’24. This will also be factoring into the early ’24 USD bid.
Fig. 1: EUR/USD
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok