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KRW: Bullish Flag Could Herald Retest Of 2020/2021 Highs

CNH

CNH/KRW is on the upswing after a temporary setback, which saw the rate reject resistance from its 2020 high and pull back in tandem with the RSI's slide below the 70 threshold. The latest sell-off was limited by the 23.6% retracement of the Apr 9 - Aug 17 rally at KRW179.07 and the pair bounced off there, piercing the top of a descending channel drawn off its earlier YtD high. This rebound allowed CNH/KRW to complete a bullish flag pattern, signalling the return of topside momentum.

  • The next formidable layer of resistance is provided by KRW181.90, where the rate peaked on Aug 17. It is located in close proximity to the 2020 market top at KRW182.07, printed during the market crash in the early days of the global pandemic of Covid-19. A clearance of these levels would represent an important bullish development.
  • Bears bet on another dissipation of buying impetus, which could result in a move under the aforementioned Fibo support at KRW179.07. A clean break here would shift downside focus to Aug 9 low of KRW176.50, followed by Jul 15 low/50% retracement of the Apr 9 - Aug 17 upswing at KRW176.06/175.91.

Fig. 1: CNH/KRW

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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